Robert R. Prechter. Elvis, Frankenstein and Andy Warhol

Robert R. Prechter. Elvis, Frankenstein and Andy Warhol

Robert R. Prechter in 80 years has created a name for himself as the chief spokesman of market movements - at the end of the decade "The Financial News Network," named him one of the five artists in the world of finance. And to think, at the beginning of the previous decade in the 70s, he was a professional rock musician. For four years he was a drummer in a rock band - in fact, his group created the song "Some people are lucky all the time,"which I'm glad Stewart later made a hit in that time he became acquainted with the works of Ralph H. Elliott, who believed that all human behavior is based on adherence patterns, "Using data from the stock market as a basic research tool ceoero - explained Prechter - Elliott singled out 13 models (figures), or waves, which are repeated in the markets." He considers the work of Elliott as important for sociology, as the work of Newton's physics.

In the end, Prechter came to Wall Street where he first worked as a technician in a "Merrill Lynch". As a devoted follower of Elliott Prechter has left the corporate scene to rock to publish in 1979 a monthly newsletter, "Elliott veyv teorist." Despite the fact that he was praised, some critics have equated it to the techniques of numerology. Not paying attention, Prechter predicted the major bull market in September 1982, claiming that the Dow Jones industrial companies shares will increase to five times the level of its then value. As soon as the market continued to grow, he became a celebrity in the program "Good Morning America" ??and "Today Show"

According to Prechter, the long bull market has not created a select group of investors. This is largely the result of a positive social attitude. His degree in psychology (obtained from Yale University in 1971, Gad) definitely contributed to its methodology anali3a. When considering the movement of the market, he takes into account the factor produced by the music and the length of the garment to assess the mood of the public. For example, in 1989, he felt furious album "Appetite for destruction" hard-rock band "Guns en'rozez" and a brilliant song Bobby McFerrin "Do not worry, be happy" alleged discord in society, going down a harbinger of the market. In "Elvis, Frankenstein and Andy Warhol," Prechter throws a historical look at social trends in clothing, music and art and equates them and the behavior of the stock market. Yes, he says, the stock market imitates art.



Predicting the stock market - art. Whether to also use art to predict the stock market? In essence, yes. For the trend in stock prices - a reflection of popular sentiment in investing community, spreading in the whole society. For example, right now in certain areas of popular culture point to higher stock prices. Indeed, they point out that we can be formed on the edge of the speculative boom. Trends in music, film, fashion, literature, television, popular philosophy, sports, dance, style, cars, customs, sexual orientation, family life, activities, campus, politics and poetry - all of which reflect the prevailing mood of society. But not all the same. For example, television and movies tend to show a wider, more gradual changes in mood. In contrast to them, the shorter fluctuations, as they feel people can be seen in fashion, because you can quickly accept or reject the styles of clothing, or in popular music, popular hits which rush up and down in the lists of sales.

Stock Market - a great place to study the behavior of the masses, because it is unique as a place where there are specific, detailed and extensive data. The main difficulty in identifying indicators of mood, except for share prices, an unfortunate lack of accurate numerical data. Suppose we have reliable data: for visiting sports event; the notes and changes in popular music melodies and lyrical content of popular songs, the history contained in popular books, the length of clothes, tie width, height of heels, celebrity styles and colors in Pop Art, by angularly against circularity in automotive design, the construction of various architectural styles. Further assume that all the data evaluated in terms of sales.

Why, in this case, we could read charts the public mood as we read the charts of aggregate stock prices. Of course, the snag is that such data are not available. So consider this article not as systematically developed theory, but more like nabrosok ideas.

Let's look more closely at various aspects of popular culture, as indicators of the collective mood. Let's start with fashion. It has long been the relationship, at least casually, by the length of the lines of clothing and stock prices. The length of skirts rose to short mini-skirts in the twenties and sixties, in both cases reaching a peak with the price of the shares. Fashion for a long dress to the floor appeared in the thirties and the seventies (the maximum), coinciding with the minimum share price. It would not be unreasonable to assume hypothetically that the rise in long robes, and in tsenah shares reflects the overall growth of playfulness and daring among the population decline in both cases - a decrease of these qualities.

Since the length of skirts has limitations (or the floor and upper thigh), achieving the limit means that the maximum is reached a positive or negative mood. The same is true of fashion colors. Bright colors are associated with the vertices of the market, and boring, dark colors - with the bases. Then it is not a coincidence that, less than a skirt or a swimsuit, the brighter the colors, in turn, the fashion floor is more closely associated with the dull, dark colors such as brown, black or gray.

All fashion items reflect the prevailing popular mood. The width of a tie, heel height, style, trousers and bright or conservatism in men's fashion change depending on people's feelings. And the same changes in mood, which are expressed in a fashion, determine trends in the stock market.

In the late sixties pop art came Peter Max, specializing in the decoration of consumer products with bright primary colors, and Andy Warhol, has acquired fame by producing colorful trash-art art, which expresses the bright, healthy, positive mood prevails when the shares are in bull markets and these data are raised to the highest values ??on the market tops. Art that expresses a heavy, dark, negative mood, is catching on, when the shares are experiencing a bear market, and what art reaches extreme values ??in the bottom of the market.

Similarly, it seems, are associated with trends in the stock market, and movies. Illustration is the only example. In the early thirties, when collapsed, the Dow Jones came to the American screen horror movies. Thereafter for as long as ten years period, slightly stretched over the stock market in 1942, horror films depicting frankenshteynovskih monsters, vampires, werewolf and mummy neumershih.

When in the early forties again began a bull market, Hollywood has abandoned the dark, evil so the most reliable way: making fun of them. When Abbott and Costello met Frankenstein, the horror of the whole left.

The next 25 years, moviegoers were treated to various food and horror themes were muted. All this time there was a bullish stock market. However, in December 1968, just after the peak of the speculative bull market, cine mood changed.

How far gone this change, it became clear only in 1970, when the audience began to gather in the cinema eating human flesh, zombies from "Night of Living Dead." Just look at the Dow chart and you will see change in the mood that inspired the film and forced the desire to watch it, then, in 1974, the skin is dark mood has become even more on the screens out "The Texas chainsaw massacre," and detailed the bloody details are given in As the main component of a horror movie.

For its part, pop music just amazingly coincided with the Dow Jones industrial stocks. The ups and downs in the careers of leading pop musicians, youth and supernaturally coincided with the peaks and dips of the stock market when stock prices change in the leading popular singers and groups quickly dissolve in the darkness, to be replaced by the directions, reflecting a new mood has arisen,

Bull market of the twenties was characterized by jazz and, ultimately, super-fast dance music, Bear thirties brought cries of hard times and soft dance music. Together with the bull market came to the mid-relaxed swing music, and offered live dance style jitterbug. Year 1937 introduced the "Sisters of Andrews' who enjoyed huge success in 1937-1942 years, when there was adjustment of the stock market (" girl group "were popular in the 1959-1962 Taxi's, while another stock market correction.)

The beginning and middle of the forties different fast big band music that dominated the market to peak in 1945 - 46 years, then started to turn around the stock market correction of late 40's, and in vogue singers melodic love ballads, both men and women . Even jazz has experienced a dramatic slowdown in the form of cool style, winning in 1949, during a large drop in the shares.

Initial promotion of post-war bull market from 1949 to 1953 inclusive, was accompanied by mass appearance in the charts a new orchestral music in a folk style. During this period, 49 titles of music in the style of the country and sold millions of copies of Western each, and "racial" music sold well enough to appear in trade magazines of its own sales charts. By 1954, appeared excited as a result of improving the public mood reflected the growing stock market, could not hold back any longer. Began to appear orchestras playing in the style of folk music and the stage is very energetic burst of rock 'n' roll.

For several years, Trendsetters danced like crazy for jazz music to lose its collective emotional tension. Vigorous positive feeling was just euphoric preparation for the joy expressed by the melodic and harmonic music "British invasion" and the U.S. Fan gangs. These groups dominated the charts during the last growth phase of the Dow from 1962 to 1966.

In 1966 the group "Rolling Stones" unexpectedly exceeded the group "The Beatles" in the "Top 10 hits" which nominated the topic of drugs, mental fracture, mourning and death, their last hit of the year was in October. Look at the decline in stock prices from January to October 1966, and see how accurately it reflects the new mood of the masses. By mid-1966, said Philip Norman in "shout": "Modern group P. Mersey [ie, English in a good frame of mind] all went home to settle into the role of engineers, butchers and waterproofing." The same thing happened with other ensembles, who played the happy music that could not change the musical direction: in 1966 a string of their hits in the "Best 10" suddenly stopped.

The public is now looking for something else. She found it to something else more "earthly" lyrics and musical accompaniment, which is increasingly used "distortion", or noise. By coincidence, the name of rhythmic pop music has changed rock and roll in just a rock, a name that accurately indicates the rigidity of the new musical style. Music in the style of the blues, which has ceased to be popular in the early fifties, once again surfaced as the dominant style.

A mixture of sentiment in popular music during the 1966-1969 period reflects the great battle of bull and bear markets that raged on Wall Street. Secondary indexes headed for new heights, but the Dow Jones index, reached peaks in January 1966, has declined. Meanwhile, rock music became consciously artistic and was in the prime of innovation, creativity, sophistication and complexity.

Peace-loving mood psychedelic era coincided with the last "Hurrah" in the stock market, which grew into a speculative frenzy of the new unprecedented heights in the secondary stock market indices such as the "value bet Line." Charts led a series of hits "Bubble Gum", reflecting the trend in extreme sugary, if it ever was. At the same time music pop groups and stars that formed the upper stage, suddenly lost their appeal.

With the growth of negative sentiment started to gain popularity artists performing slow ballads. Buyers ballad feel suppressed, while the children are angry. Background music for a bear market, dating back to 1966 and to disperse in 1969, dce delivered more groups, which accentuated the negative, stressed the themes of war (as opposed to the theme of peace), hatred (as opposed to love), sex (instead of love songs), and Devil heavy metal groups that are initially satisfied by just a noisy sound bad, have adopted a calculated theatrical approach to his recordings and performances and offered a dark, sexual ambiguity and filth in general.

The most extreme musical event of the mid-70s became a punk-rock. As deputy editor of "Southern Partisan" Tom Lendess, the lyrics of these songs reminiscent of the classic poem by TS Eliot's "Wasteland." The accompanying music was antimuzykalnoy (ie, tuneless, based on one or two chords and two or three musical notes, with shrieking vocals and harmonies with a low voice or the complete lack of it, with the dissonance and noise). Punk musicians have a rule as a non-musical artists to be minimalists, and create ugliness. Their reign ended with a bearish stock market in the early 80s.

In short, the mood of "feel good", "I happily" or "I love you" in art, film, fashion and music meet the bull market of the shares. The most extreme, amorphous-euphoric feeling of "me great and I love everyone" (predominant in the latter half of the sixties) represented a major peak coincided with the mood and an important peak of the market shares, by contrast, feelings like "I'm overwhelmed," "me gloomy and bored 'or' I'll kill you "in art, film, fashion and music reflect a bearish market. Amorphous feeling exhausted, "I'm in agony, and I hate all" (in the late seventies), indicating a decline in mood and coincided with an important reason the stock market.

In the early eighties manifestation of the negative sentiment reached an extreme point. It spoke of the importance of ground, while the manifestations of positive attitudes began to emerge one after another. The first confirmation of the pop influence of the forces a positive mood was the effort of the public, aimed at individual self-improvement. In 1980 he issued a passion for shaping video. Guess that was popular in the very similar 1920 - training for sound recording. This most psychologists "is reflected in the film immense popularity," Rocky, "which expressed the new mood that" you can succeed if you try hard. "

Bull Market 1982 - 1983 period was accompanied by a nostalgic mania. In vogue again appeared in almost all the style of the fifties, as well as a passion for etiquette, the Boy Scouts, baseball, Disney movies, sun glasses, "Ray, Ben," manly men, westerns, suaruzhestvu and children. In music, love songs once again proved a welcome, if not central, theme of popular hits. A few "supergroups" of the negative period - "Se xy" and "Pink Floyd" - played their last concert, and went, while the singers slow songs have disappeared from the devil. Heavy metal and punk bands began to exhaust itself under the pressure of a new trend, as well as "fan"-the gang in 1966 and "art"-the gang in 1969.

After the first major move of the stock market reached its peak in 1983, the fiftieth craze in music started to decrease. While fashion and fiftieth still present, since that time it has largely given way to a style of early 60's, especially 1960-1962.; On Wall Street, these were years of transition, aimed to promote the stock market in 1962 - 1966. In 1984, the new dominant trends in dance and music were the "break" (in the eighties it was the equivalent of twist, reigning from 1960 to 1962) and a girl singer. Important to indicate the change of sentiment may be that the predominance of women in pop music seems to reach a limit in that year. March 4 Cindy Louper graced the cover of the magazine "Newsweek" On 27 May the Madonna appeared on the cover of "Time.